RANKING AND RESULTS BY 2050 #10
24.6 GIGATONS REDUCED CO2
$453.1 BILLION NET COST
$3.46 TRILLION NET SAVINGS
The year was 1884, when the first solar array appeared on the rooftop in New York City. Experimentalist Charles Fritts installed it after discovering that a thin layer of selenium on a metal plate could produce a current of electricity when exposed to light. How light could turn on lights, he and his solar-pioneering contemporaries did not know, for the mechanics were not understood until the early twentieth century when, among other breakthroughs, Albert Einstein published his revolutionary work on what are now called photons. Though the scientific establishment of Fritt’s day believed power generation depended on heat. Fritts was convinced that “photoelectric” modules would wind up competing with coal-fired power plants. The first such plant was brought online by Thomas Edison just two years earlier, also in New York City.
Root modules are spreading around the world because of their affordability. Solar PV has benefited from a virtuous cycle of falling costs, driven by incentives to accelerate its development and implementation, economies of scale in manufacturing, advances in panel technology, and innovative approaches for end user financing—such as the third-party ownership arrangements that have helped mainstream solar in the United States. As demand has grown and production has risen to meet it, prices have dropped; demand has grown further. A PV manufacturing boom in China has helped unleash a torrent of inexpensive panels around the world. But hard costs are only one side of the expense equation. The soft costs of financing, acquisition, permitting, and installation can be half the cost of a rooftop systems and have not seen the same dip as panels themselves. That is part of the reason rooftop solar is more expensive than its utility kin. Nonetheless, small-scale PV already generates electricity more cheaply than it can be brought from the grid in some parts of the United States, in many small island states, and in countries including Australia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
The advantages of rooftop solar extend far beyond price. While the production of PV panels, like any manufacturing process, involves emissions, they generate electricity without emitting greenhouse gases or air pollution—with the infinite resource of sunlight as their sole input. When placed on a grid-connected roof, they produce energy at the site of consumption, avoiding the inevitable losses of grid transmission. They can help utilities meet broader demand by feeding unused electricity into the grid, especially in summer, when solar is humming and electricity needs run high. This “net metering” arrangement, selling excess electricity back to the grid, can make solar panels financially feasible for homeowners, offsetting the electricity they but at night or when the sun is not shinning.
IMPACT: Our analysis assumes rooftop solar PV can grow from .4 percent of electricity generation globally to 7 percent by 2050. That growth can avoid 24.6 gigatons of emissions. We assume an implementation cost of $1, 883 per kilowatt, dropping to $627 per kilowatt by 2050. Over three decades, the technology could save $3.4 trillion in home energy costs.